Zurich Classic Tournament Overview

The Zurich Classic - TPC Louisiana

• Par 72, 7,415 yards

• Par 3s: 4

• Par 4s: 10

• Par 5s: 4

• Greens: Bermudagrass

• Green Size: 5,225 sq. ft.

• Water: 8 Holes

• Design: Pete Dye, 2003

• Location: Avondale, LA

• Format: Team, Non-Elevated

• Field: 74 Teams

• Cut: Top 33 Teams + Ties

• Purse: $9.2 Million

About the Course:

TPC Louisiana is a fairly easy course set up to fit the low scoring, team based nature of this tournament. With less than driver off of the tee preferred in some cases, you see a lot of different types of golfers find success around this golf course. With wide fairways and short rough length, golfers with a high driving distance tend to have an easier time and put their team in a better position for success. Teams will have to do most of their scoring with strong iron play. If you aren’t hitting your long irons well, you will fall behind quickly. Around the green game is fairly easy as long as you are playing from the rough and not the bunkers. The green complexes don’t have much slope of undulating terrain, so chip shots are as straightforward as they come, meaning we don’t see much correlation between success and SG:ARG. The only way to truly contend and win is by putting well as a group. One bad round of putting could be the difference in winning and finishing T10. We have Bermudagrass greens, so a focus on specialists of that grass type can be a minor factor this week. Other key factors include Club/Ball Speed, Recent Form, Birdie or Better % and SG:TOT 1-3+. All in all, TPC Louisiana doesn’t ask you much other than score as best you can. To find success as a team, you need to basically putt well, put you or your partner in great spots to do that with strong iron play and just not blow it off of the tee.

The Zurich Classic is the most unique tournament on the PGA Schedule with it being a team-based event. 74 teams face off in alternating formats of Best Ball (THUR + SAT) and Alternate Shot (FRI + SUN). The Top 33 Teams + Ties make it to the weekend after a Friday cut. Given the nature of team events, there is a ton of volatility in the leaderboard with some very low ranked groups finding their way to the top almost every year. Below is a comprehensive Tournament Breakdown, looking at some of the favorable teams and using the best data possible to make informed decisions on which groups to target on DraftKings or the betting markets.

Course Model:

Here are the metrics I will be basing my Course Fit Model on:

• Weighted SG:APP - 20%

• Weighted SG:T2G - 10%

• Weighted SG:P - 10%

• Weighted SG:TOT - 10%

• SG:TOT 1-3+ - 5% Each

• Club Speed - 5%

• Birdie or Better % - 10%

• Driving Distance - 10%

• SG:P Bermudagrass - 5%

• SG:Easy Courses - 5%

Here is a look at our top groups based on combined Course Fit Model Score under these conditions:

Analysis:

This is very much a “Strokes Gained Vibes” week as some might say because following raw data is not usually a predictive measure to success at Team Tournaments. It can give us a good idea of good form entering which can help, but I can almost guarantee we will see multiple teams that aren’t on this list that you might not even consider inside the top 10 this week and ultimately could win. After digesting the data and factoring in some of my own analysis, here are some of my favorite pairs for the week:

1. Matt and Alex Fitzpatrick ($10,500): They play in this tournament every year and will clearly have some good vibes being brothers. This might be the best form entering the team event these two have ever had with Matt having won twice on Tour this year and Alex actually having won on the DPWT recently as well. I think this tournament is theirs for the taking.

2. Shane Lowry and Brooks Koepka ($10,000): While I don’t like them as much as the Fitzpatrick brothers, I think this would be the perfect opportunity for Koepka to gain the status he wants and will likely give it his best shot. Lowry has won here in the past, even if Rory dragged him to a win and overall they still model collectively very well. I like their chances this week.

3. Ryan Gerard and Sudershan Yellamaraju ($9,500): If you take Gerard’s early season form and pair it with Sudershan’s current form, you have the makings of a top 10 player on Tour. They lead the way in my model ranking by a good distance with both being top 15 in this field in 4 of the most important stats and at least one of them in the top 20 in another 6 of the weighted fields. While I don’t think I would be betting them at their current Vegas number, I see them as a great Draftkings play even at inflated ownership.

4. Hao-Tong Li and Jordan Smith ($9,000): This unlikely pairing could be a diamond in the rough with how their games match up. They both drive it very far and have dominated Easy courses in the past. The other SG metrics are very strong as well and are both coming off of great last performances. We will see if they can mesh well, but they check almost every box we want this week.

5. Sam Stevens and Zachary Bauchou ($8,300): These two on paper check a lot of boxes we want for this week. They both have the distance to have easier shots into the green and both are good enough on approach that they shouldn’t find much trouble (Stevens is top 10 in this field in wSG:APP). From a putting standpoint, they both are serviceable which is really all you need. They make a great pair that could make waves this week, especially for Bauchou who is a bit of a journeyman ready to take the next step on Tour.

Other Strong Options:

• Vilips/Greyserman: Former teammates at Stanford

• Rai/Sahith: Name value, decent current form

• Penge/Wallace: Nationality chemistry, long drivers

• Ventura/Reitan: Nationality chemistry, long drivers

• Springer/Smalley: Both top 20 in Birdie or Better %

• Brennan/Keefer: Young bombers

• Finau/Greyserman: Name value, long drivers, good putters

• Putnam/Smotherman: Elite approach

• Horschel/Hoge: Horschel elite tournament history, name value, Draftkings price

• Dunlap/Sargent: Young bombers, SG:TOT 1-3+ decent for both, Draftkings price

• Capan/Goodwin: Young guns, strong BoB% and SG:Easy Course numbers, Draftkings price

Thanks for reading and best of luck this week!