US Open Tournament Preview

US Open - Shinnecock Hills Golf Club

• Par 70, 7,440 yards

• Par 3s: 4

• Par 4s: 12

• Par 5s: 2

• Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Mix

• Green Size: 4,500 sq. ft.

• Water: 0 Holes

• Design: William Flynn, 1931

• Location: Southampton, NY

• Format: Major

• Field: 156 Golfers

• Cut: 36 Hole Cut, Top 60+Ties

• Purse: $21.5 Million

About the Course:

On the outskirts of Long Island lies Shinnecock Hills, a pseudo-links style course that becomes a true test when you factor in weather, the rough and small greens. It is a lengthy course with wider fairways (close to 50 yards wider on average) which would make you think you need to bring distance off of the tee. However, the first cut of rough is going to be over 5 inches long which will almost immediately penalize you. With high winds expected and small greens, you are going to have to bring it with your irons. Almost all approach shots come from over 150 yards so long iron efficiency will likely make or break your week. Similar with approach, small greens lead to more shots around the green. In 2018, we saw almost no correlation between success and SG:ARG with both 1st and 2nd (Brooks Koepka and Tommy Fleetwood) losing in that category but almost the entire rest of the top 20 gained. It might not be a separating statistic, but you can’t be a big loser with your wedges. Lastly, putting is not going to be easy this week with strong undulation and if the USGA puts the pins in the same spots they did in 2018 it will make things even worse. You have to stick it in the right areas or you run the risk of easily rolling off of the green. On top of the greens running fast, you are just going to have to have a strong putter if you want to find your way to the top. If you can marry strong iron play and a great putter, you will be in contention this week. Manage your game, limit bogeys and have a good read on the wind and you almost certainly will have a shot at lifting the US Open Championship Trophy.

Inside the Field:

It doesn’t get much stronger than this field. We have the top 47 golfers in the OWGR all in attendance along with 100+ other golfers who bring either pedigree, grit and/or perseverance to the table. 62 golfers from around the world competed in the Longest Day of golf just a week ago to qualify for the US Open and will be eager to tee it up and make a name for themselves this Thursday. Every US Open Champion since 2010 outside of Martin Kaymer and Lucas Glover will be in the field for this week. The only exception is possibly Brooks Koepka, 2 time US Open champion, who picked up a hand injury at the Canadian Open last week and is in jeopardy of missing the 3rd major of the season.

Below is a Tournament Breakdown, looking at some of the favorable golfers and using the best data possible to make informed decisions on who to target on DraftKings or the betting markets for this week:

Course Fit Model:

Here are the metrics I will be basing my Course Fit Model on:

• SG:APR - 20%

• Bogey Avoidance - 15%

• SG:PUTT - 10%

• SG:T2G - 10%

• Total Driving - 10%

• Scrambling - 6%

• SG:ARG - 5%

• Driving Accuracy % - 5%

• SG: PUTT Bentgrass - 5%

• SG:Hard - 5%

• 150-175 yards - 3%

• 175-200 yards - 3%

• 200-225 yards - 3%

Favorite Golfers:

$10,000+ Range:

• Rory McIlroy ($12,200): If he can get past his poor driving accuracy numbers that have plagued him since the Masters, everything else in the bag is pointing towards contention this week. Over his last 30 rounds for this field, he is 3rd in SG:T2G, 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 3rd from 150-175 yards which with his Driving Distance will be the primary range he is going to be having on APP. With him also being top 10 in SG:Hard Courses and comfortable in the wind, I think his winning upside will be put on display this week.

Other Notables: Scottie Scheffler, Cam Young, Xander Schauffele

$9,000 Range:

• Brooks Koepka ($9,400): With only 3 golfers in this range, I want the one that has true major championship winning upside and that would be Brooks. There is some concern due to the recent hand injury which forced him to withdraw from the Canadian Open, but the one thing that had been plaguing him, the putter, was on full display prior to stepping out in the 3rd round. He was 1st in that field in SG:PUTT having gained over 7 strokes, through 3 rounds mind you. If he can bring his usual elite T2G pedigree AND that level of putting to the table, the sky is the limit for Brooks to pick up his 3rd US Open win.

Other Notables: Tommy Fleetwood

$8,000 Range:

• Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,900): The disrespect from Draftkings is crazy for Matt Fitzpatrick. He is playing like a top 5 player in the world and is priced below multiple golfers that have not shown the winning upside as of late. 3 wins this season and a solo 2nd last week at the Canadian Open whilst gaining across the bag has me thinking he will be very chalky, but I am going to be all over it. You are getting a $10,000 golfer at a massive discount who truly can go out and win this tournament. Sign me up.

Other Notables: Tyrell Hatton, Collin Morikawa, Chris Gotterup, Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley

$7,000 Range:

• Wyndham Clark ($7,800): You can not deny the run of form that Wyndham has been on lately. He won at the Byron Nelson in runaway fashion 3 weeks ago, follows it up with a 3rd at the Memorial in a much more difficult test and then a T11 last week in Canada where his irons, which have been elite as of late, let him down in R4. If he just hits those well on Sunday he is once again in contention to win that tournament. I don’t think you are going to be able to show up to Shinnecock in poor form and compete. Wyndham will have no issues bringing confidence and a very strong golf game to the table this week and possibly contend once again.

Other Notables: Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama, JJ Spaun, Patrick Cantlay, Si Woo Kim, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka

$6,000 Range:

• Alex Fitzpatrick ($6,600): I have been on the Alex Fitzpatrick train since the Zurich and have no intention of getting off now. For starters, his ability to grind on the Euro tour should have him set up to play well in the expected harsh winds. Then you take his current run of form where he has 3 top 10s in his last 5 events, all of those being in elevated events. Over his last 30 rounds for the field, he is in the top 10 in all of SG:APR, Bogey Avoidance, Driving Accuracy and Scrambling. That is elite for the price tag. He is easy to fit into lineups and will be a staple as a cheap option for me this week.

Other Notables: Kristoffer Reitan, Cam Smith, Alex Smalley, Jake Knapp, Aaron Rai, Bud Cauley, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, Kurt Kitayama, Daniel Berger, Lucas Herbert, Dustin Johnson, Tom Kim, Brian Harman, Keith Mitchell, Harry Hall, Sudershan Yellamaraju, Matt McCarty, Chris Kirk

$5,000 Range:

• Jackson Suber ($5,600): If you are dropping down this far, it is almost certainly to get Scottie into your lineups and another top option. You likely won’t need to play anyone from the $5,000 range. However, a guy like Suber who has 2 top 5s in his last 3 events is certainly a name to look out for. He avoids bogeys which is going to be crucial this week, is hitting his irons well which you will need and the driver which he had lost earlier in the season is finally back in a big way. If he can just have a spike putting week, making the cut shouldn’t be a problem and he could make a name for himself by pushing towards the first few pages of the leaderboard.

Other Notables: Andrew Putnam, Max McGreevy, John Parry, Ben Kohles, William Mouw, Miles Russell, Jimmy Stanger

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