RBC Canadian Open Tournament Preview

RBC Canadian Open - TPC Toronto

• Par 70, 7,389 yards

• Par 3s: 4

• Par 4s: 12

• Par 5s: 2

• Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Mix

• Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft.

• Water: 3 Holes

• Design: Doug Carrick, 2001

• Location: Toronto, Canada

• Format: Non-Elevated

• Field: X Golfers

• Cut: 36 Hole Cut, Top 65+Ties

• Purse: $9.9 Million

About the Course:

TPC Toronto is once again hosting the Canadian Open and quite frankly it leaves a lot to be desired. This is a very wide, flat golf course that doesn’t really give golfers much of a test. You can really rip the golf ball off of the tee and find the fairway more often than not. However, if you do miss then you could be in trouble. You have to REALLY miss though which a lot of these golfers in the field know and will factor in. Being long certainly makes approach a lot easier, but last year’s leaderboard featured a good mix of long and short hitters. Golfers will see approach shots from a bunch of different ranges, leading to more of an emphasis just on SG:APP vs. looking at specific approach buckets. Around the green doesn’t factor in all that much. You just need to be a zero in that category if you want to contend which leaves us with the most important statistic this week… Putting. Looking at last year’s leaderboard, if you want to contend you have to be a gainer on the greens. The winner, Ryan Fox, wasn’t exactly the best putter that week, but still gained on the field at SG:PUTT. Everyone else in the top 5 gained over 1 stroke per round with the putter. It feels like a very simple week for golfers at TPC Toronto and that is to hit their irons well and spike putt to be in contention. Off the tee you can really be any type of golfer, but distance is always an advantage and around the green is not statistically significant.

Inside the Field:

We actually have a fairly strong field this week despite the lack of Scottie and Rory. 4 of the top 10 in the OWGR are in attendance including Cam Young, Collin Morikawa, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood. We also have 14 of the top 50 including Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry, Wyndham Clark and Aaron Rai. Overall, there is a lot of depth with top 100 golfers and being the Canadian Open, we have a lot of Canadian sponsor exemptions including Adam Hadwin, Ben Silverman and Mike Weir.

Below is a Tournament Breakdown, looking at some of the favorable golfers and using the best data possible to make informed decisions on who to target on DraftKings or the betting markets for this week:

Course Fit Model:

Here are the metrics I will be basing my Course Fit Model on:

• SG:OTT - 5%

• SG:APP - 20%

• SG:PUTT - 10%

• Birdie or Better % - 15%

• Driving Distance - 5%

• Total Driving - 10%

• GIR% - 5%

• Opportunities Gained - 10%

• SG:PUTT Bentgrass - 10%

• SG:Easy Courses - 10%

Favorite Golfers:

$10,000+ Range:

Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,500): Cooled off slightly since his 3 wins in 4 events back in April, but the approach numbers are still elite and is typically a very strong putter. He just needs to bring the driver that we saw a few months ago and contending shouldn’t be difficult for him.

Other Notables: Tommy Fleetwood

$9,000 Range:

Wyndham Clark ($9,700): Recent form is fantastic, with a 1st and 3rd at two entirely different courses. He has been great on approach and putting which is what we want to look for and is plus on distance off the tee. He gains opportunities and at a top 10 rate along with Birdie or Better % for this field so he just needs to capitalize on all of these things and if he does, I don’t see why he can’t win again this week.

Other Notables: Brooks Koepka, Justin Rose

$8,000 Range:

Eric Cole ($8,000): Over the last 36 rounds for this entire field, Cole is 3rd in putting, 7th in birdie or better % despite the lack of distance and is very strong in opportunities gained. I am not kidding when I say he has gained across the bag with every club except the driver for 6 straight events. Not even guys like Scottie and Rory can say that. I think he is trending towards a win and this certainly seems like the place for him to do it.

Other Notables: Alex Noren, Kristoffer Reitan, Alex Fitzpatrick, Michael Brennan, Aaron Rai, Keith Mitchell

$7,000 Range:

Austin Eckroat ($7,000): Eckroat is definitely a guy that will bring his irons which we really want and gains opportunities at an elite rate for not just this price range, but the entire field. He is 7th in OPP gained along with being 15th in Birdie or Better %. I think he is an interesting name to look at down here and is starting to trend in form.

Other Notables: Mac Meissner, Johnny Keefer, Sudershan Yellamaraju, Andrew Putnam, Haotong Li, Zach Bauchou, Tom Kim, Taylor Moore, Chris Kirk, Jackson Suber

$6,000 Range:

AJ Ewart ($6,900): The young Canadian is looking primed to come into his national open and shine. He is coming off of back to back top 20s on the back of great putting. We need the putting this week for sure which he is top 5 in this field in. If we can get a good approach week from him which we do see spikes from, then there is no reason he can’t beat some of the other names around him.

Other Notables: William Mouw, Billy Horschel, Keita Nakajima, Mark Hubbard

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