CJ Cup Byron Nelson Tournament Preview

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CJ Cup Byron Nelson - TPC Craig Ranch

• Par 71, 7,355 yards

• Par 3s: 4

• Par 4s: 11

• Par 5s: 3

• Greens: Bentgrass

• Green Size: 6,778 sq. ft.

• Water: 13 Holes

• Design: Tom Weiskopf, 2004

• Location: McKinney, TX

• Format: Non-Elevated

• Field: 145 Golfers

• Cut: 36 Hole Cut, Top 65+Ties

• Purse: $9.9 Million

About the Course:

TPC Craig Ranch, known for its wide fairways and low scoring conditions is an exciting watch for fans to showcase just how good these golfers really are. You see scores eclipse -20 on a regular basis and they make it look so easy. This is a driver heavy course that caters heavily to long hitters of the golf ball. However, we do see a bit higher of a Missed FW Penalty if you are wayward given the fairways are incredibly wide. We are going to put strong emphasis towards distance, but still factor in Total Driving as missing big can pose issues, especially missing left. It is a very long course which alone causes approach shots to come at a longer range. Almost all significant shots this week are going to come from 150+ yards, so long iron efficiency is going to be the key range. With this also being a birdie-fest tournament, being a great ball-striker will be essential as those golfers will have much easier putts for birdie. Around the Green game is not as important this week as most other weeks with the Scrambling % being higher than PGA Average and GIR% being almost a non-factor. To me, that reads guys can very easily put themselves in easy putting situations regardless of missing the green or not. There also isn’t a lot of bunkering to worry about or undulation. With scores reaching well into the -20 or better range, you can’t be a poor putter and expect to contend. Since 2022, only 2 golfers have finished inside the top 10 and lose strokes putting for the week (Wallace 24', Schwartzel 22'). We have a Bentgrass blend with Kikuyugrass overseed, so put more focus on SG:PUTT on Bentgrass to find good fits. Some other key factors will be Birdie or Better %, SG:Easy Courses and Par 5 Scoring. You won’t get away with playing conservatively, so the golfers that attack pins and roll a hot putter will almost certainly be the ones in contention this week.

Inside the Field:

The field is led by Scottie Scheffler who is looking to claim his first win since the American Express in January. The rest of the field lacks some pedigree. Scheffler and Rai are the only golfers inside the top 20 of the OWGR rankings and only 5 others are inside the top 50 (Si Woo Kim, N. Hojgaard, Marco Penge, Michael Kim and Jordan Spieth). Every year this tournament has been played at Craig Ranch, we have seen a golfer outside the top 250 in OWGR, so expect to see a long-shot be in contention.

Below is a comprehensive Tournament Breakdown, looking at some of the favorable golfers and using the best data possible to make informed decisions on who to target on DraftKings or the betting markets for this week:

Course Fit Model:

Here are the metrics I will be basing my Course Fit Model on:

• SG:OTT - 10%

• SG:APR - 10%

• SG:PUTT - 5%

• Birdie or Better % - 10%

• Driving Distance - 10%

• Total Driving - 10%

• 150-175 yards - 5%

• 175-200 yards - 5%

• 200-225 yards - 5%

• OPP Gained - 10%

• SG:PUTT Bentgrass - 5%

• SG:Par 5s - 10%

• SG:Easy Courses - 5%

Favorite Golfers:

$9,000 Range:

• I don’t do this often, but with the price that Scottie Scheffler ($14,800) holds and the rest of the field pricing, I am advocating against playing him. You are left with on average just $7,040 per golfer for the 5 remaining roster spots. I don’t envision finding 5 other golfers that can provide enough upside in the bottom of the pricing structure that will be able to push Scottie, even if he wins, into an optimal lineup. He would need to replicate his -31 win from last year AND see 3-4 other golfers under $7,000 put up top 20 finishes. I think the likelihood you are able to predict who those golfers will be and roster them all together is just way too low for the payoff.

Pierceson Coody ($9,100): He is the only golfer in this field not named Scottie Scheffler that is top 20 in this field over the last 36 rounds in all of SG:OTT, SG:APP, BoB%, Par 5 Scoring, Driving Distance and SG:PUTT on Bentgrass. That is literally the perfect blend to win here at Craig Ranch. He did miss the cut at the PGA Championship which I think is excusable given the strength of the field, but prior was putting up some strong finishes and started the season out red hot. I think he can channel that early season form in a weaker field to possibly get into contention this week.

Other Notables: Brooks Koepka, Ryo Hisatsune, Jordan Spieth

$8,000 Range:

Rasmus Hojgaard ($8,900): While he might not be in as great of form as his brother Nicolai, the numbers still look very strong for Rasmus this week. He is top 20 in this field in SG:APP, Par 5 Scoring and Driving Distance while also being a solid putter over the last 36 rounds as well. He made the cut at the PGA Championship, but just couldn’t put it together over the weekend. Similar to Coody, we are hoping for the early season form from Hojgaard who was putting up some great finishes and this is the field to do that in.

Other Notables: Wyndham Clark, Max Greyserman, Michael Brennan

$7,000 Range:

Jordan L. Smith ($7,400): He might not be the best putter, but he checks a lot of the other boxes we are looking for to be successful at Craig Ranch. Very strong BoB% and Par 5 Scorer for the price. He hits it a mile and is top 20 in both SG:OTT, SG:APP and top 25 in Opportunities Gained. That is a great stat profile and the price is extremely good for the upside.

Other Notables: Tom Kim, Haotong Li, Stephen Jaeger, Kevin Roy, Doug Ghim, Andrew Putnam, Johnny Keefer, Lee Hodges, Karl Vilips, Taylor Moore, William Mouw, Trace Crowe, Vince Whaley

$6,000 Range:

AJ Ewart ($6,700): In this price range, we really just need guys that check a couple of boxes to pay off. Ewart is a great putter, strong on the Par 5s and is top 20 in the approach ranges from 150-200 yards. I think that is enough for me to want to make him a focal point of my lineups to help fit in the top options. The rest of this price range leaves a lot to be desired.

Other Notables: David Ford, Jackson Suber, Jesper Svensson, Emiliano Grillo, Joel Dahmen

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Tiers - $50 to 1st

Budget - $50 to 1st

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