Cadillac Championship Tournament Preview

The Cadillac Championship - Trump National Doral

• Par 72, 7,733 yards

• Par 3s: 4

• Par 4s: 10

• Par 5s: 4

• Greens: Bermudagrass

• Green Size: 7,200 sq. ft.

• Water: 14 Holes

• Design: Dick Wilson, 1962 with an extensive Gilbert Hanse redesign in 2014

• Location: Miami, FL

• Format: Elevated

• Field: 72 Golfers

• Cut: No Cut

• Purse: $20 Million

About the Course:

A course that we haven’t seen on the PGA Tour since 2016 is making a return… Trump National Doral. We have seen it played on LIV over the last few seasons to give us a good idea of how we expect things to play and it really is similar to what we saw back in 2016 when Adam Scott won. The most obvious characteristic of the course is its immense length at over 7,600 yards and plays even longer if the coastal winds start kicking up. Off of the tee, you almost have to be one of the longer hitters to be in contention unless you bring your A+ game in every other category. Having a carry distance over 310 yards will almost certainly make this course a lot easier to take apart which only a handful in this field can say they do. However, with all of the wind and water that present themselves, you can’t be terribly inaccurate so Total Driving is going to be a key metric for us this week. However, the most important metric is going to be strong approach play. You can’t get away with bringing your B or C game with the irons this week. A lot of shots come from 175-225 yards, so long iron efficiency is a must. With water in play on 14 holes and a lot of bunkers surrounding the green, we do see Sand Save % and Scrambling pop up as somewhat of important factors, but they aren’t as correlated to success as many other stats at Doral. As for putting, like most weeks, bringing a strong putter on Bermudagrass is going to be essential to success. You need to see some long putts fall for you on these very large greens, so we also are going to look at Lag and Bonus Putting statistics to round things out. Other miscellaneous stats to factor in are Bogey Avoidance as we see lower scores than the PGA Tour average typically win, Par 5 scoring as we have some very long Par 5s and they are your only strong scoring opportunities and lastly SG: Long Courses with this being exceptionally long.

Below is a comprehensive Tournament Breakdown, looking at some of the favorable golfers and using the best data possible to make informed decisions on who to target on DraftKings or the betting markets for this week:

Course Fit Model:

Here are the metrics I will be basing my Course Fit Model on:

• SG:OTT - 10%

• SG:APR - 15%

• SG:T2G - 5%

• SG:Putt - 10%

• Bogey Avoidance - 5%

• GIR% - 5%

• 175-200 yards - 5%

• 200-225 yards - 5%

• Sand Saves - 5%

• Scrambling - 5%

• SG:Putt Bermuda - 5%

• SG:Par 5s - 5%

• SG:Long Courses - 5%

Favorite Golfers:

$9,000 Range and Above:

Scottie Scheffler ($13,600): He is still the best player on the planet and this tournament has a lot of guys that are great fits to give him some a run for his money sitting out (Rory, Ludvig, Fitzpatrick, etc.). He checks every single box and soon enough he will figure it out with his irons. Once he does, it is over for the tour and this is definitely the type of course that fits his style of golf.

Chris Gotterup ($9,300): At a course that demands length, Gotterup has exactly that. His approach game is also quietly a strong point for him, so pairing those two aspects this week is almost a guarantee for success. With his elite ability to score well on the Par 5s and also being top 15 over the last 36 rounds in SG:Putting on Bermuda, he has all the keys to success needed to contend this week.

Collin Morikawa ($9,800): This is as much an ownership play as it is a metrics play with a lot of people scared away by the injury risk. Put that aside and his form and data say he is an excellent fit here. Despite the back, he is still hitting it far and is still showcasing why he is the best iron player on the planet. His weakness has almost always been the putter and he has gained in 3 of the last 4 tournaments in that category. He could be a sneaky great option this week with ownership going to a lot of the surrounding options.

$8,000 Range:

Min Woo Lee ($8,600): You won’t find many golfers in this tournament that are as well rounded as Min Woo and that is saying a lot given it is an elevated event. He has elite distance and the putter outside of the Heritage has been extremely solid as well. He has spike approach play in him as well, basically making him the complete package. It will all come down to whether he can put it all together and I think the answer is yes. This course is built for his style of play and distance.

Adam Scott ($8,400): Last time we saw Doral on Tour, Adam Scott came out on top in 2016. To think he is STILL and amazing option after all of these years and the amount of talent currently playing is insane. He is top 10 over the last 36 rounds in this field in all of SG:APR (2nd), SG:T2G (5th), SG:Par 5s (9th) and SG:Long Courses (5th). That is the perfect combination for success and he also is sneaky long for his age. Sign me up for Scott to have another great performance at a course he has some good history at.

Rickie Fowler ($8,000): His price tag is great for what he brings to the table. He is long enough off of the tee to not get himself too far behind the pack, is a great putter and is finally starting to get his irons back which has been the missing piece. Him gaining 3+ strokes in the approach category on his way to a T8 at the Heritage gives me a lot of confidence going forward that he can still be a contender and this is a really strong spot for him to do so.

$7,000 Range:

Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,900): He might not be the complete package, but at a place like Doral this is about as close as you will get in this price range. He has elite distance, is a great Par 5 scorer, top 20 in the field on approach and top 30 in putting on Bermuda. What more could you ask for? He will be highly owned, but I think he is a good chalk option to roster. Just be sure to get different in one other spot.

Shane Lowry ($7,600): While he is a bit shaky with the driver, his being 6th in the SG:APP category makes me feel a lot better about him. That isn’t even to say he is a bad driver as he has gained OTT in 8 of his last 9 events, just in a minor way. Pair that with a fairly sound putter, Par 5 scoring ability and Scrambling efficiencies and I see no reason he can’t have a strong finish this week.

Sudershan Yellamaraju ($7,000): Now he has cooled off the last two weeks with a pretty poor showing in Zurich and at the Heritage, but all in all for this price it is about as good as it will get when pairing off the tee and approach numbers. He is top 10 in Driving Distance which is a big factor and is 19th and 24th in SG:OTT and SG:APR respectively. That will go a long way this week and doesn’t even factor in he is top 20 in SG:PUTT on Bermuda as well. Sign me up for the young Canadian this week.

$6,000 Range:

Jordan Smith ($6,800): The $6,000 range is insanely gross this week in general when it comes to course fit with Jordan Smith being the only guy to rank inside the top 35 in this field for my model. He hits it far, has been good on approach and has a great GIR% compared to the guys around him. If you want access to the top, he is a very solid option and you will get 4 rounds from him regardless.

Max Homa ($6,400): All I have to say is that no one else around him looks good and he is 15th in Driving Distance and 37th in SG:APP in this field over the last 36 rounds. The putting on Bermuda has been fine enough for me to take some swings on him at the price tag and hope he can have a vintage Homa performance.

Austin Smotherman ($6,300): When you are 4th in the entire field in SG:APP at this price, you have to garner some interest and he is still in the top half in Driving Distance. He might be abysmal around the greens and putting, but over 72 holes of golf he should give himself enough good looks with his irons to put together a somewhat respectable finish.

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Tiers - $50 to 1st

Budget - $50 to 1st

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