3M Open Tournament Preview
Major Championship season is finally done, but the lead in to the Fedex Cup Playoffs begins now with the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. In this article, we will breakdown the course itself, identify the key metrics to success, create a course fit model and use that data to identify some of the best option on Draftkings for this week's tournament.
3M Open - TPC Twin Cities
- Par 71, ~7,400 yards
- Par 3s: 4
- Par 4s: 11
- Par 5s: 3
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft.
- Water: 15 Holes
- Design: Arnold Palmer, 2000
- Location: Blaine, MN
- Format: Non-Elevated
- Field: 142 Golfers
- Cut: 36 Hole Cut, Top 65 + Ties
- Purse: $8,800,000
About the Course:
TPC Twin Cities lies basically in an urban community with homes and water scattered throughout the entire property. For this reason, the need for accuracy off of the tee is crucially important. Even with it being a decently long course, Arnold Palmer strategically placed water hazards to force you to play the course vs. just hitting it as far as you can for easy shots into the green. If you keep your ball dry and in the fairway, approach is by far the most important factor, with over 60% of golfers finishing in the top 10 having gained 1 or more strokes in that category over the last 5 years. With larger greens, around the green play isn’t important, but you just can’t blow up with your short game if you plan to contend. Once on these bentgrass greens, being a good putter doesn’t make much of a difference. Year in and year out, we see some poor putters spike here to pick up top finishes. This birdie fest will likely be a competition to see who can make the most putts. Expect a finishing score closing in on 20 under if not higher. Finding the fairway, hitting your irons well and avoiding the water will likely be the recipe for success here at TPC Twin Cities just like it is every other year.
Inside the Field:
We have a relatively weak field this week, but we are headlined by World #1 Scottie Scheffler. He is deciding to play here for the first time following the Open Championship. Other notables include Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, reigning 3M Open champ Kurt Kitayama and Maverick McNealy. With only 8 of the top 50 golfers in the OWGR in the field this week, a lot of lesser notable golfers will get their chance to shine and make a name for themselves. Will they be able to top Scottie and grab the win? Only time will tell.
Below is a Tournament Breakdown, looking at some of the favorable golfers and using the best data possible to make informed decisions on who to target on DraftKings or the betting markets for this week:
Course Fit Model:
Here are the metrics I will be basing my Course Fit Model on:
- **SG:APR - 15%
- **Birdie or Better % - 15%
- **Driving Accuracy % - 15%
- **SG:TOT - 10%
- **SG:TPC Twin Cities - 10%
- **SG: PUTT Bentgrass - 5%
- **SG:TOT 2+ - 5%
- **Total Driving - 5%
- **100-125 yards - 4%
- **125-150 yards - 4%
- **150-175 yards - 4%
- **175-200 yards - 4%
- **Bonus Putting - 4%
Favorite Golfers:
$9,000 Range and Above:
- Tom Kim ($9,300): He is my preferred option with how strong the irons have been, specifically the mid irons and his driving accuracy is strong enough. His GIR% is quite high as well so pair all of those things with his top 20 rate at gaining 2+ strokes per round metric and I think he is the best bet give Scottie a run for his money at the top and possibly win this golf tournament.
Other Notables: Scottie Scheffler, Kurt Kitayama, Keith Mitchell, Doug Ghim
$8,000 Range:
- Jordan L. Smith ($8,300): He is also a very accurate driver of the golf ball, but also has his irons dialed in right now. He isn’t a good putter, but we see poor putters have success here all the time and spike. Maybe that is what we can get from Smith in his first trip to this course.
Other Notables: Jackson Suber, Corey Conners, Sam Stevens, Mac Meissner, Ben James
$7,000 Range:
- Christian Bezuidenhout ($7,900): Bezuidenhout is actually 4th in the entire field in the SG:APP category. Not only that, but he is 23rd in Driving Accuracy, 20th on Bentgrass and a well above average birdie maker. That is the exact formula we are looking to have this week which at just $7,900 seems like a steal. I don’t just think he will do well with this week, but could actually contend.
Other Notables: Michael Brennan, Johnny Keefer, William Mouw, Brian Harman, Taylor Moore, Emiliano Grillo, Ben Kohles, Lee Hodges, Denny McCarthy, AJ Ewart, Billy Horschel
$6,000 Range:
- Aaron Wise ($6,600): He took a long break away from golf about a year ago to focus on some mental health issues. Since returning, he really struggled to find his form even on the lower circuits. That was until his wife became his caddie. Since then at the John Deere, ISCO and Corales, he has bagged a T39, T3 and T15 which is extremely solid. Clearly the form is starting to come back and in this weak of a field, he actually could repeat those same finishes.
Other Notables: Tom Hoge, Austin Eckroat, Karl Vilips, David Lipsky, Joel Dahmen, Paul Peterson
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